You probably don’t see yourself as a big reader of Ministry
of Defence global strategy documents. Which would be a pity, because a recent
publication gives you a security slant on a lot of global trends. Such as:
countries with more men than women tend to be more violent and authoritarian.
As numbers of women and men become more equal in any society, there is less
violence. China will have an excess of 48 million men in 2045, they guess. Worry about the implications of that.
What does it say about older people? In one stunning
statement, it raises concern that growing numbers of older people will put
pressure on public expenditure and lead to a reduction in defence expenditure. That
is, in rich countries. They’re clearly concerned about this, whereas I think it
would be rather a good thing.
Of course, they note, developing countries don’t provide
welfare, so they’re likely to be all right. No suggestion that improving welfare
services is also likely to be a trend over the next thirty years or so, particularly
where there aren’t any. However, they do have a box for a possible
alternative outcome:
Ageing populations and increased dependency ratios may create funding pressures, particularly in developed countries. However, advances in healthcare and changes in education methods may see the cost of providing these services fall, as people become healthier, work longer and education becomes de-centralised.
So there’s some hope for the defence budget then.
There are also chapters on gender equality and urbanisation,
where the concerns raised are about security implications of social change, but nowhere the
suggestion that working hard to eradicate the problems that it reasonably identifies
would be the best course of action. I know it’s the Ministry of Defence, and
their job is to make sure that defence is provided for, but actually we’d have a
lot less to worry about if we had better social provision worldwide.
Link to the full report on global strategic trends
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